Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 1.626539 2.137938 2.824998 3.838215 5.334359e+00 7.529683e+00 1.112908e+01
2024-12-15 1.178129 1.768645 2.711857 4.416963 7.639627e+00 1.399554e+01 2.916326e+01
2024-12-22 0.883444 1.478900 2.580506 4.977298 1.075879e+01 2.653264e+01 8.723188e+01
2024-12-29 0.693153 1.278295 2.517115 5.748546 1.585648e+01 5.656392e+01 3.722716e+02
2025-01-05 0.549382 1.102066 2.422490 6.516937 2.330444e+01 1.311964e+02 2.744947e+03
2025-01-12 0.413187 0.881487 2.106678 6.464107 2.902541e+01 2.611435e+02 3.431659e+04
2025-01-19 0.310274 0.694398 1.774527 6.078579 3.352200e+01 4.948143e+02 3.889698e+06
2025-01-26 0.252838 0.596673 1.645610 6.424916 4.616225e+01 1.477765e+03 NaN
2025-02-02 0.219442 0.548879 1.650167 7.527752 7.660701e+01 9.817849e+03 NaN
2025-02-09 0.195920 0.519394 1.707067 9.231355 1.445068e+02 3.827639e+05 NaN
2025-02-16 0.168692 0.466887 1.642317 10.180710 2.359618e+02 6.468436e+12 NaN
2025-02-23 0.140681 0.400506 1.474317 10.050031 3.153656e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 0.114792 0.334267 1.276752 9.422682 3.895276e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 0.101087 0.305787 1.244414 10.578934 7.593888e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 0.089026 0.278526 1.200270 11.661094 1.544140e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 0.079836 0.258612 1.183822 13.325748 3.997474e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 0.071603 0.239215 1.156631 14.970204 1.195435e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.061710 0.209181 1.038163 14.393803 2.073019e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.052723 0.180120 0.906666 13.055954 2.711461e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.047287 0.164768 0.859833 13.664866 8.905463e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.044101 0.158280 0.872553 16.208286 1.887297e+06 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.041819 0.155100 0.909849 20.357969 NaN NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.038528 0.145889 0.890681 22.588078 NaN NaN NaN